Loserthink, page 22
Cernovich, Mike, 114
Charlottesville and “fine people” hoax, 56–57
clarifications, public, 210–14
clean energy technology, 173–74, 178–79
climate change
and CO2 scrubbers, 15–16, 175–78
and considering alternatives, 134–36
conspiracy theories on, 85–86
data on, 10
and Democrats’ news silos, 201
and framing the issue, 229
MacFarlane’s post on, 7–8, 8
and one-variable illusion, 85
reliability of basic science on, 16
risks of, 134–35
and seventeen-year pause, 11–12
and skeptics, 11–12, 85–86, 115, 175
and technological advances, 173–78
and time value of money, 134
climate scientists/science
basic science in, 16
consensus of, 7–8, 8, 15, 16, 17
and credibility issues, 16
and data collection, 10
and impact of sun, 115
predictions and models of, 7–8, 9, 12, 13, 15, 16, 172
as presented to public, 16
and seventeen-year pause, 11–12
and skeptics, 11–12, 85–86, 115, 175
uncritical certainty of public in, 9
Clinton, Bill, 29
Clinton, Hillary, 29, 84–85
CNN, 55–57, 56, 201, 202
coincidences, 95–99, 151, 232
common sense, 3, 126, 216, 230
comparisons, 125–31, 155
complaining, habitual, 158–59
complex issues/scenarios
and doing your own research, 156
experts’ track records with, 137
having firm opinions about, 136–37
and one-variable illusion, 83–86, 231
paired with money, 13–14, 85
computers, predictions about, 138, 139
confidence
being wrong despite, 59, 114–18, 219–20
and body language, 37
correlation with success, 35–36
cultivating, 36–39
and laundry list persuasion, 223–24
and Magic Question, 221–23
people’s preference for, 40
in sources of information, 224
of successful entrepreneurs, 116–17
targeting, 223, 224, 226
confirmation bias
and coincidences, 95, 232
and common sense, 216
and cult membership, 217
and doing your own research, 157
and political conspiracy theories, 217
recognizing in oneself, 157
and Trump’s “fine people” hoax, 57
confusopolies, 136–37
conspiracy theories
about climate change, 85–86
Cuba’s “sonic weapon,” 29
Deep State, 217
Pizzagate, 29
Russian collusion, 217
social impact of, 20
and tips for uncovering reality, 215–16
context, importance of, 195–99, 201
copying machine, predictions about, 138
cortisol, 51
cost-benefit analyses, 123–25, 131, 132
couch lock, escaping, 105–9
cowardice, accusing others of, 159–60
crimes, unsolved, 166–68
criticisms of previous employees, 79–80
Cuba, “sonic weapon” allegedly used in, 29
cults, 216–19
cultural gravity, 190–92
Deep State conspiracy, 217
Democratic Party
and border security, 228
branding all Republicans based on individual members, 102–3
and climate change, 229
cult status of, 218
and healthcare reform, 183, 229
news silos of, 201
and Trump’s “fine people” hoax, 57
DeSantis, Ron, 26–28
dictators, 149–50, 169
differential diagnoses, 126
digital trails, 167
Dilberito, 14–15
Dilbert comic strip
author’s career pivot to, 109
author’s success with, 76, 200
lack of training for creating, 189
and learning from mistakes, 192
microsteps to goal of, 107–8
mockery employed in, 3–4, 18
and Newsweek cover, 84
syndicate companies’ responses to, 200
topics chosen for, 41–42
The Dilbert Principle (Adams), 67–68, 189
disagreements, perceptions of, 89
DNA and criminal justice, 167
Dogbert’s Top Secret Management Handbook (Adams), 68
dog whistles, 27, 57
drug overdose deaths, 81
economists, thinking like, 120–40
and allocation of money across multiple risks, 134–36
and comparing alternatives, 125–31
and confusopolies, 136–37
and costs of scrubbing CO2, 15–16
and decisions based on costs or benefits, 131
and “ends justify the means” questions, 123–25
and practical insights, 120–23
and straight-line predictions, 137–40
and time value of money, 132–34
Edison, Thomas, 93
education, 164–66, 179
ego, 35–46
dialing down, 39–40
dialing up, 36–39
and effectiveness, 43
and fear of embarrassment, 43–46
and need to be right, 42–43
practicing controlling, 46
as a reflection of oneself, 40–41, 42
as a tool for use, 35–36, 40, 41–42, 205, 231
embarrassment, 43–46, 193, 205–6, 231
employment, 178–80, 195
“ends justify the means” questions, 123–25
engineers, thinking like, 79–86
and one-variable illusion, 83–86, 231
by separating cause and solution, 80–83
skepticism of expert opinions, 79–80
entrepreneurs, thinking like, 105–19
confidence of, 116–17
and humility, 114–19
and personal control, 111–14
and staying in/leaving one’s lane, 109–11
and testing assumptions, 118–19
etiquette rules
Forty-Eight-Hour Rule, 210–14
Twenty-Year Rule, 214–15
evil, branding people as, 30–31
exaggeration, 90–92, 91
exercise, 38, 206–7
expertise and experts
and conspiracy theories, 215
limited number of experts in fields, 10
and protecting yourself against frauds, 123
skepticism of, 79–80
on topics of national/global interest, 83–84
track records with complex issues, 137, 200
understanding limitations of, 199–200, 232
explanations, ordinary vs. extraordinary, 29, 30
eye contact, 37, 38
fact-checking, 34, 89
failure, patterns of consistent, 70
fairness used as an argument, 148–49, 231
fake news
identifying, 201–3
and opinion stacking in news, 21
and political agendas, 145
as recorded in textbooks, 61
social impact of, 20–21
and Trump’s “fine people” hoax, 56–57
and waiting for clarification, 214
falsified data, 14
famous people, reports about, 199
fear, 43–46, 159–60, 187, 205
feels-the-same patterns, 151
Ferriss, Tim, 114
finances, prioritizing, 194–95
financial advice, 8–9, 122, 123
Fisher, Irving, 138
fitness, 38, 206–7
flaws, focusing on, 46–51
focal dystonia, 189
food pyramid of the USDA, 14
Ford Motor Company, 137
Forty-Eight-Hour Rule, 210–14
fossil fuels, 139
Fox News, 50, 95, 201, 202
frauds, 14, 123
freedom of speech, 147
friction’s ability to change behavior, 153–54
fusion power, 173–74, 178–79
Gates, Bill, 174, 175–76, 201
gay rights and “coming out,” 75
Global Thermostat, 176–77
GMAT, 193–94
goals, 93–94, 111–13
Godin, Seth, 114
Golden Age, 163–87
and climate change, 172–78
and crimes left unsolved, 166–68
and education technology, 164–66
and escape from mental prisons, 65
and healthcare innovations, 180–85
joint effort required for, 230
and low-cost housing, 164
and middle class, 164–65
and population control, 164
and poverty, 163–64
and race relations, 185–87
and unemployment, 178–80
and world peace, 168–72
Golden Rule, 208
good, differing ideas of, 31
gun rights/control, 73, 90–92, 91, 153–54
Gutfeld, Greg, 95
halfpinions, 131, 232
hallucinations, 215–16
handshakes, 37, 38
health, 51, 194–95, 206–7
healthcare, 94, 180–85, 229
history, 60–78
attempts to fix, 63
dealing with difficult personal, 62
distorted lenses of, 60–61
focusing on systems for success rather than, 64–65
“history repeats” premise, 67–73
and indoctrination of children, 61
and learning from past mistakes, 70
of the Middle East, 62
on Native Americans, 60–61
and pattern recognition of humans, 66–70
as persuasive tool, 63
and “slippery slope” premise, 73–74, 231–32
and West on creating a future, 64
Hitler, Adolf, 169
housing, low-cost, 164, 179
How to Fail at Almost Everything and Still Win Big (Adams), 112, 113–14, 194, 206
humility, 39, 40, 114–19, 231
humor as tool, 18, 152
hyperbole vs. legitimate opinions, 90–92
hypnotist skills of author, 18, 105, 108–9, 203
hypocrisy defense, 147–48
imagination, failure of, 53–59
immigration, illegal, 81–82, 86
index funds, 69, 70, 122
individuals, judging groups based on actions of, 102–3, 232
Influence (Cialdini), 204
insider trading, 123
intentions of others, assumptions about, 210–14, 227
introversion, 37, 38
investments
advice on, 8–9
growth in, 133–34
in index funds, 69, 70, 122
and insider trading, 123
and motives of financial advisors, 122
Munger’s method for choosing, 101
predictions based on historical patterns in, 69–70
real estate, 121–22, 134
and stock prediction scams, 12–13
Iran, 170, 171–72
Islamic wars and terrorism, radical, 171–72
Israel, 171
Jacobi, Carl Gustav Jacob, 100
Jarrett, Valerie, 211–12
#JobsNotMobs, 197–98
J.P. Morgan, 181
judging
actions rather than thoughts, 213
the group based on individuals, 102–3, 232
for issues over twenty years old, 214–15
responses to mistakes, 207–9
the thoughts and intentions of others, 212–13
jury trials, 54–55
Khamenei, Ali, 169, 171–72
Kim Jong-un, 169
labeling, 31–32, 160–61
lab/health tests, 181
laundry list persuasion, 223–24
leaders, thinking like, 87–94
and accuracy vs. direction of truth, 88–90
and hyperbole vs. legitimate opinions, 90–92
and systems vs. goals, 93–94
LGBTQ community, 75
liars and lying, 33
lifestyle, importance of, 206–7
locker system dilemma, 44–45
loserthink, 1–2, 5
low-cost living, 179
luck, 111, 112, 117
MacFarlane, Seth, 7–8, 8, 12, 17
Magic Question, 221–24
Manson, Charles, 150, 151
manufactured outrage, 202
marriage and divorce, patterns in, 69
mass hysteria, 29
medicine, 126, 183–84
memories, dealing with difficult, 62
mental illness, 30–31
mental prisons, 188–219, 220–29
about, 17, 18–19
and age, 190
and author’s prison breaks, 188–90
and behavioral change effecting mental change, 206–7
and calling out mind reading, 227–28
and conspiracy theories, 215–16
and context of stories, 195–99
and cults, 216–19
and cultural gravity, 190–92
and describing the long term, 226
and embarrassment management, 205–6
and fake news filter, 201–3
and Forty-Eight-Hour Rule, 210–14
and framing issues, 228–29
and illusion of rationality, 203–5
and “in the weeds” issues, 225–26
and judging mistakes of others, 207–9
and knowing where to start, 192
and listening to experts, 199–200
and Magic Question, 221–24
and pacing, 224–25
and persuasion, 203
and setting priorities, 193–95
mentioning vs. comparing, 155
microsteps to larger goals, 106–9, 113
middle class, struggles of, 164–65
Middle East, 62, 171–72
mind reading
calling out, 227–28
illusion of, 24–32, 231
and intentions of others, 212–13
and moral equivalency arguments, 142–43
in the press, 202
of Reiner, 34
misinterpretations, challenging, 221–24
mistakes
judging responses to, 207–9
as learning experiences, 39, 70, 192–93
refusing to admit to, 147
mockery, 3–4, 18, 79–80
money
allocating across multiple risks, 134–36
made from bad behavior, 122–23
motivating power of, 120
paired with complexity, 13–14, 85
time value of, 132–34
moral equivalency, 141–42
MRI scanners, 182
MSNBC, 201
Munger, Charlie, 101
Musk, Elon, 4
naming things, power of, 3, 4–5
Native Americans, 60–61
negative, proving a, 103–4
negative terms, employing, 4–5
negativity, 46–51, 158
Nest, 136
news programming. See press
Newsweek, 84
New York Times, 9–10, 197–98
“normalizing,” 145–46
North Korea, 70
nuclear power, Generation IV, 174, 179, 201
nuclear powers, 169–70
nutrition science, 14–15
Obama, Barack, 65, 202
Ocasio-Cortez, Alexandria, 109, 150–51, 151
Occam’s razor, 32–33, 231
offensive statements, 210–14
Olsen, Ken, 138
one-variable illusion, 83–86, 231
opinion stacking, 21
opioid addiction crisis, 81
opposite outcomes, considering, 101–2
optimism, 158–59
ordinary vs. extraordinary explanations, 29, 30
outrage, manufactured, 202
ozone hole predictions, 15
Pastis, Stephan, 41
pattern recognition of humans, 66–70, 150–52
peace, 168–72
peer-reviewed studies, 9–10
performance as related to self-worth, 43–45
Periscope posts of author, 42, 58, 193, 197
Perry, Rick, 178
personal control, 111–14
persuasion
author’s skill set in, 18, 197–98, 203
book recommendations, 204
compromised by need to be right, 42–43
and fairness arguments, 148–49
and hyperbole vs. legitimate opinions, 90
and illusion of rationality, 203–4
laundry list persuasion, 223–24
as leadership skill, 87
and pacing, 224–25
and prediction models in climate science, 16
use of patterns/analogies in, 150–53
Pizzagate conspiracy theory, 29
political arguments, 42–43, 148
political candidates, verbal gaffes of, 26–29
political commentary career of author, 42, 93, 189, 193
political warming, 22–23
politicians, fack checking claims of, 89
population size, 139, 164
positivity, 50–52, 158
posture, 36, 37, 38
poverty, 163–64
The Power of Habit (Duhigg), 204
praise, power of, 161
predictions about the future
