The Future of Almost Everything, page 33
Future of religious movements and ethics
What about new religious movements? History tells us that such things usually start as a reaction against what is seen as moral decay and spiritual bankruptcy of society at the time. When we look around the world today, it is hardly a surprise that we are seeing growing numbers of radical religious groups, some of which will be truly revolutionary.
It is very easy for an influential group of believers from any religion to argue that some or all of the following are true today, from their own point of view:
society has lost its soul and moral compass
everywhere you look, traditional moral values have been lost
people are becoming more self-centred and individualistic
our culture is obsessed with celebrity worship, even though most celebrities are terrible role models
youth are worried by superficial and worthless things like personal appearance
family life is breaking down, community ties weakened
many are addicted to alcohol, drugs, sex, the internet
government leaders are often corrupt and cannot be trusted
the web has become a sexual free-for-all, with child abuse and other disgusting or destructive behaviour promoted as normal
rapid, continuous economic growth was supposed to promise a better world but has resulted in appalling contrasts in wealth, failed to deal with the worst global poverty, and is unsustainable by definition
one nation has vast influence over the whole world – exporting its media, culture, corporations, brands – but is itself in a state of moral and spiritual decay
greedy global corporations and banks are wrecking our world
mental illness is more common, suicides are growing, with rising sales of antidepressants, and rapidly growing numbers of counsellors to help people cope with unsatisfying, depressing lives
we have lost sight of the fact that we are spiritual beings, that there is another dimension to life, and that we exist only as a result of divine permission
God has a plan for humanity, which society must obey
humanity as a whole will be held to account
each of us must respond to God’s purpose for our own lives.
Therefore, it is obvious that we will continue to see a rapidly growing number of radical religious activists, driven by a ‘divine call’ to promote (or even impose) God’s authority on earth, according to the beliefs they have about who He is and what His will is. Most of them are likely to belong to an existing world religion, and will probably live in emerging nations.
As part of this, we are likely to see new kinds of ‘puritanism’ in Christianity, just as we have seen in Islam over the last 20–30 years: new waves of orthodoxy that will be very uncomfortable for established churches, and hard to contain within existing structures, fiercely intolerant and zealous for spiritual purity.
New ethical standards for believers and wider society
Such new Christian movements may well seek to prohibit a wide range of ‘sinful’ or unwise behaviours: banning smoking and drug use among church members, stricter sexual ethics – doctrines that seem to be a throwback to the anti-alcohol temperance movements of the 19th century. These new movements are likely also to become political activists, campaigning for new laws, government regulations, and so on. However, such movements could well split fairly rapidly over the issue of same-sex relationships.
We can also expect new expressions of monastic life, with growing numbers of people taking radical vows of poverty, chastity and obedience, many of whom may be labelled as members of dangerous ‘brainwashing’ cults.
The church in emerging communities will drive theology
Such new Puritans will of course seem totally at odds with much of the rest of the church in developed nations, where sexual activity of many kinds outside of marriage is increasingly accepted as perfectly normal among members, where divorce and remarriage are routine, and where gay marriage is celebrated. We are already witnessing a fundamental ethical schism between developed and emerging nation churches, liberal and Pentecostal, old-style denominations and indigenous church movements.
Almost all major new missionary movements, over the next 30–40 years, are likely to be influenced by the vision, teachings and values of churches in emerging nations or the poorest parts of the world, reflecting global patterns of church growth and zeal.
Most of the fastest-growing churches in Europe, from the UK to Germany, Poland, Estonia, Ukraine and Slovakia, will probably continue to be those that are evangelical, Pentecostal, charismatic. Such labels can mean different things to different people, but all tend to have three things in common: enthusiastic promotion of life-changing, personal discipleship, a particular focus on the New Testament section of the Bible as a daily guide to following Jesus, and a passionate belief in the power of prayer to release the power of God, together with the gifts of the Holy Spirit to change people’s lives.
Such growth will be boosted by migrant communities from emerging nations – whether Nigerians, Poles, South Koreans or Chinese. However, this growth is unlikely to offset overall decline in church-going across much of Europe over the next 20 years, particularly in ageing congregations with liberal theology.
Growth in Catholic churches
The Catholic Church has 1.2 billion members globally, many of whom are not active, compared to over 1 billion in Protestant churches and around 450 million in Orthodox churches. Catholicism in developed nations will stabilise after years of decline, and will grow in the poorest nations, under the inspiring leadership of Pope Francis.
Pope Francis has a radical theology and ethical framework that embraces aspects of Pentecostalism, and adds to his popular appeal. However, he faces the risk of being undermined and even killed because of his very public all-out attack on the corruption, indifference to the poor, and spiritual apathy that he has identified in the heart of the Vatican.
He is certainly more vulnerable than other popes, having abandoned almost all the security measures that they have used, both in and outside the Vatican. If he is removed or assassinated, we can expect great conflicts within the Catholic Church about what kind of pope should succeed him.
Global war against Christians
As in Islam, the most radical edge of Christianity is likely to be a call to arms. An ideology that promotes fighting as necessary to protect the church from being wiped out by aggressive Islamic persecutors.
This type of militant thinking is especially likely to develop among extremist indigenous churches in central and northern Africa, as a response to terrible attacks against churches and Christian households over more than two decades. We are already seeing signs of this in some parts of Africa, particularly in Bangui, the capital of the Central African Republic.
However, such militancy is likely to be held back in most places by the dominant Christian ethic, which has been relatively pacifist, following the teachings of Jesus to love your neighbour as yourself, love your enemies, pray for those who persecute you, and when your enemy strikes you – turn the other cheek.
Christians have been slaughtered, tortured, kidnapped, raped and beheaded in unprecedented numbers over the past two decades according to the International Society for Human Rights, which estimates that 80% of all acts of religious discrimination are against Christians. Reuters reports that numbers of reported cases of Christians killed for their faith doubled between 2012 and 2013 to 2,100, which would suggest a total of around 5,000 a year, since most do not get picked up by global media. The Vatican has issued an estimate of around 100,000 ‘martyrs’ a year over the last decade, but that included ethnic/religious genocide in places like the Democratic Republic of the Congo.
Persecution in Iraq, Nigeria and North Korea
In Baghdad alone, 40 of 65 churches have been bombed in a decade. Persecution is leading to migrations, with over 1 million Christians fleeing Iraq in the same period. In Kandhamal, Orissa, north India, 500 Christians were killed in a series of Hindu-supported riots, thousands were injured and 50,000 believers were left homeless, while 350 Christian schools and churches were destroyed.
In northern Nigeria, Boko Haram has butchered over 5,000 Christians since 2009, with over 650,000 forced to flee from towns and villages. In North Korea some estimate that around 25% of 300,000 in labour camps are there because of their Christian faith, and many thousands more believers have just disappeared after arrest.
Attacks on churches in China and Pakistan
In China, most church congregations are not recognised legally by the government, and harassment is common, despite rapid growth. Indeed, such attacks are partly a response of fear about the strengthening influence of these unlawful and influential groups. Large churches have been pulled down, and many leaders arrested in some parts of the country, for example in Wenzhou where 15% of the population of 9 million are already Christian.
In Pakistan, mobs regularly lynch and kill Christians who are accused of telling others about their faith, or of showing disrespect in some way to Islam. People who convert to Christianity often live in great fear, risk being attacked by family, worship in complete secrecy, and are often forced to flee abroad to seek asylum. When you meet people who have experienced these things, as I have, you cannot fail to be touched by what has happened to them. Expect many more such cases.
Islam also at war with Islam
Such attacks by Islamic extremists are not just directed at those of other religions. Most of them are against others from an Islamic background.
Some radical Islamic teachers seem set to continue to encourage online followers to kill all ‘infidels’ and those who support them, including people who describe themselves as devout followers of Islam, but whose lifestyle does not reflect the same interpretation of the Koran.
And we are likely to see ongoing bitter, intense, tribal and ideological wars between Sunni and Shiite ‘tribes’ of Islam, with their different cultural histories. As we have seen, we can expect a growing culture gap between more moderate, wealthy and intellectual believers in developed nations, and those who follow Islam in emerging nations.
A new world religion?
At the end of the last chapter, we looked at the possibility that political creeds could be swept aside by a radical new ideology that could turn out to be as influential as communism was in the late 19th century and the major part of the 20th century. Alongside this, we can also expect to see a new religion.
All major world religions are likely to continue to reinvent themselves over the next 100 years, as their traditional teachings are reinterpreted in very different ages and cultures. The roots of the Christian faith have remained virtually unchanged over 2,000 years but expressions, understanding and practice have varied greatly.
Global ‘market’ for a new world religion
A completely globalised world is likely to create a vacuum or a ‘market’ for a new world religion, which will feed into the aspirations of the M generation. We could well see a world-recognised prophet emerge over the next few decades with charisma, dynamism and teachings, which rapidly capture the global imagination.
The biggest issue will be truth: is there such a thing? Global religions such as Judaism, Christianity and Islam all proclaim timeless truth about an unchanging God, offering exclusive understanding of him. In contrast, New Age beliefs draw heavily from some aspects of Hinduism, which emphasise a more general approach to truth, and a more fluid, ethical framework, with far fewer absolutes.
In a constantly changing world, certainty about ultimate issues such as personal destiny becomes increasingly important. That is the appeal of radical fundamentalism. Therefore, we can see that a new world religion will be most likely to be defined by dogmatic teaching, and a claim of exclusivity and superiority to all previously understood truths about God.
Expect such a prophet to offer ‘the final revelation’ that humankind has not thus far been ready to receive, the promise that humankind is ‘coming of age’ and is only now able to receive the truth. Such a prophet is likely to claim that all the great religions pointed in part to the Truth, but did not provide the complete picture.
Such a prophet could sweep tens of millions into a new religious movement, over a short space of time. But this will be unlikely without a global struggle on an immense scale. Militant Islam in particular will be as violently opposed to this new religion as it is to apostasy among Islamic communities, and as it is also to Christianity.
A new world order
With so many challenges facing the world, many of which require a collective response, will we see a new world order emerging? Is there a way to roll together the authority of governments worldwide?
The answer is that we are already seeing the tentative beginnings of such a new order, in the proliferation of environmental treaties for example, or in the global fight against terrorism.
More international treaties for global control
Hundreds of international agreements have been signed, whether to encourage trade or stop money laundering. And as more are created, informal global governance begins to emerge.
The United Nations was founded for such a purpose – ‘to save succeeding generations from the scourge of war’ and ‘to reaffirm faith in fundamental human rights, in the dignity and value of the human person.’
The real trouble is that, as we have seen repeatedly, UN member nations are divided about what they want the UN to do and how to do it. Peacekeeping is politically difficult and practically dangerous. The emphasis has switched to building economic security.
But the trend is clear: global governance will be essential to our peaceful and prosperous future. The unprecedented spirit of global collaboration that emerged after the collapse of communism and the Cold War will deepen, despite many crises and setbacks. As we have seen, part of this will develop out of regional coalitions, trading blocs and spheres of influence. Indeed trade is a civilising force.
International courts will grow in power
Despite differing positions on many issues, there is growing agreement on the need for an international code of conduct for commerce. Indeed, international trade is impossible without it.
While individual nations may reform their own legal systems, with many bilateral agreements on things like extradition, another, higher, level will be needed. The beginnings are already with us: for example, the prosecution of national leaders in one country for war crimes, by a court comprised of other countries’ representatives.
Regional law courts are well established, in the EU, for example. Expect supra-regional courts to be dealing with a wide variety of international crime cases by 2025. History shows that law and order is imposed most rapidly where there is a lack of it. Therefore, these new powers will be agreed by nations as a matter of urgent necessity, to address their own impotence.
Global government
In summary, then, expect to see various expressions of global governance emerge, and co-align into the first stages of a new world order over the next few decades.
Expect periods of intense negotiation to define global ethics in more detail, whether attempts to create a total global ban on bioweapons, a response to international terrorism or ethnic genocide, limits on global monopolies, or world agreements on slavery, child labour, work practices and other issues of human rights and responsibilities.
Many issues will be polarised between emerging and developed nations. All these debates will be increasingly influenced by a profound rethink in wealthier nations, by a new generation that is no longer so impressed by speed, urbanisation, material wealth and globalisation. A generation that is itself becoming more radical, ethical and spiritually aware.
Now is the time to choose
So, then, we have journeyed into the future of every region in the world, and into every industry. We have seen the bright and dark side of every trend, and how they form the Six Faces of the Future as a cube, which spins with all the energy that comes from emotion. Now is the time to choose …
Take hold of your future, or the future will take hold of you.
Footnote
* Prize donated by me to any charitable foundation chosen by the winner. See rules in the book Building a Better Business.
Chapter 7
SHAPING YOUR FUTURE
AS WE SAW AT THE VERY BEGINNING of our journey, the cube of your own future is weighted according to who you are, where you are and the nature of your work, your stage of life.
We have also seen how hard it is to hold the entire future in your mind at the same time. You cannot see all those six faces at once. That’s why it is so important to keep turning the cube, and to keep dipping in and out of this book, maybe over some weeks or months.
As one group of faces comes into focus, others recede into the background. Keep stretching your view, and as those faces keep turning, you will come one day to find that you can hold the entire universe of tomorrow in the palm of your hand.
The first cube was handmade by me from teak. And you can buy one of identical size, also handmade, of polished pewter, to help you in this visualisation process.*
You have to imagine that your own cube is uniquely weighted, so that a random throw will show one of the faces that is most important for you, in the next stage of your own future.
But take care, for every now and then a much less familiar face will demand your attention, with many new opportunities and challenges.
So keep turning the cube, stay agile, focused and true to your own sense of destiny. Because life is too important to waste a single day. Life is too short to do things you don’t believe in.
How very small numbers change the future
People often tell me that they feel powerless to change their own future, let alone anyone else’s. But let me encourage you with a story. The truth is that most of us have far more ability to change things than we realise, once we grasp the power of the cube.
