The Ninja and the Diplomat, page 15
part #2 of The Chinese Spymaster Series
“In any case, China does not believe it needs to act in ways that the United States considers acceptable. We do not believe, for instance, that it is necessary or polite for one country to comment on the internal affairs of another or even on the affairs of two or three nations among themselves. It sometimes appears that as soon as you have passed a new law, on what you have yourselves considered a controversial social issue, you waste no time in pressing this measure on other nations.
“Your model of acceptable rules of conduct is a lawsuit. You applaud ‘fighting city hall’ and your preferred mode of settling disputes is to ‘see you in court.’ We prefer to model acceptable behavior on what a family does or should do. We believe that we are among many nations in history that have revered their leader, king or emperor as the father of the nation. This is what we have chosen.
“We do not insist that our way is the right one. Those who believe their way is the only way to achieve peace or salvation or the greater good have, we think, inflicted much pain and damage on humanity.”
In the mumbled response, Yu heard murmurs of ‘liberal democracy’ and ‘freedom.’ He decided to indulge in a short lecture. “The theory of liberal democracy was dreamed up about four hundred and fifty years ago. The practice of liberal democracy is much younger. It is perhaps a hundred years old, and many say it is still a work-in-progress. We Chinese think it is like building a tower of eggs.”
The American Ambassador huffed and could just barely be heard muttering something about inscrutable Orientals. The ambassador from Singapore leaned over to him and said, “That is a Chinese saying and comparable to what you would call a ‘house of cards.’ To some of us not fluent in your idiom, you might appear the inscrutable Occidental!”
“Well fielded, Madam Ambassador,” whispered Yu, the diplomat.
“I expect to collect the pound of flesh later,” she whispered in reply with a mischievous twinkle in her eyes.
Yu nodded with a smile, then continued the public discourse saying, “On the other hand, the idea of an emperor or king or ruler as ‘father of the country’ is more than two thousand years old. I do not presume to say it is the better model of government but I would argue that it is a legitimate one.”
“How does one define the patriarchal model?” asked one of the ambassadors.
“With great patience,” stated Yu, partly in jest. “Chinese traditions have long held that there are five primary relationships that require firm and appropriate behavior. These are the relationship between the ruler and the ruled for one, that between a father and the household for another, that between a man and his wife for a third, that between or among siblings for the fourth, and finally, that among friends.”
“How is appropriate behavior defined?” asked the ambassador from Japan.
“Your Excellency,” exclaimed Yu, “you know this is a matter that has been wrestled with in your culture and mine for centuries. Confucius argued that if a statesman or a state succeeded in formulating this correctly, the citizens of that state would never rebel or leave. Is that not a worthy political ideal?”
After a pause, the ambassador from Singapore softly inquired, “We respect China’s dedication to bilateral negotiations as the fundamental path towards resolution of disputes, but would it be too much to ask if a different approach could be considered? To be forthright about this, we are a small country and in a bilateral negotiation with the largest economy in the world, we would feel intimidated and might prefer to have some company.
“There is also the consideration that some disputes might involve more than two parties. I am thinking, of course, of the South China Sea and the many overlapping claims to parts or all of it. That might be a situation most efficiently resolved by multi-lateral negotiations. Few of us can match the depth of numbers at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People’s Republic. Where you can afford to have several teams dealing with different aspects of what might be a single large issue, we might only be able to put together one small team.”
“I sympathize with our gracious colleague,” declared Yu. “She has put forth arguments that we shall study. China’s reluctance to engage in multilateral discussions or arbitration stems, as you know, from our own experience. It has only been forty years since we have been universally accepted into the community of nations. Before that, there was a multilateral system that did not change its views until one member did. Many of your countries share a similar history. Alas, in some cases, the annals of your oppression include that by the Chinese. We have offered an unconditional apology for such episodes in your history.
“But since borders were demarcated about a hundred years ago, and since the doctrine of territorial sovereignty was promulgated about the same time, China adopted both the borders and the principle at the same time. This is a decision that I believe every nation made in this period. There have been nations that have given way to the principle of self-determination. This has usually resulted in fissures within a state.
“To China, this is an abhorrent concept, even though we have chosen not to be involved in such disputes and conflicts. We hope we are not isolated on this matter. I believe that every nation here has some part of its population that considers itself so marginalized by the majority that it cannot imagine itself as part of the whole. Sometimes a child does not feel wholly loved within its family. Often some villagers do not feel wholly accepted by their society. Entire groups feel excluded from participation in the wealth of certain nations. I do not know how outsiders can help in these situations even though we see every day that they try.”
***
The next day in Manila, the Ambassador from the People’s Republic duly reported at the Department of Foreign Affairs to listen to reports of what Philippine government investigators have found. An empty crate discovered in Cotabato bore markings that designated it as belonging to a Chinese Army warehouse. The Secretary demanded an explanation.
“Mr. Secretary,” said the Ambassador, “my country regrets the destruction of your base. But we do not accept responsibility for it. Our security and intelligence organizations are cumbersome and slow-moving, but even in the very few hours that they have had to review their operations, they can conclude there has been no Chinese involvement in this. They could have given the same assurance even without such a review for the simple reason that China would never undertake such an act of aggression.”
“I have heard the reports of your military’s failure to keep your munitions secure,” stated the Secretary. “Forgive me if I think that such failure is very unlike the People’s Republic and the timing of those reports is too convenient.”
“Mr. Secretary,” asserted the Ambassador, “our military would be pleased to hear they have your confidence in their efficiency. Allow me to assure you that the Party does not share that confidence. Unfortunately, the man responsible has already been found dead. The Party is considering the appropriate disciplinary action for his supervisor and the chain of command. This is not going well within the Army but I have already said too much.
“Foreign Secretary, the media reports you referred to just now did not specify what had been stolen from our army stores. That is because the thefts took place over more than a year and various quantities of ammunition and assorted firearms had been stolen,” the ambassador added. “The most recent events, however, have been the theft of twelve missile launchers and twelve nuclear devices.”
The older man slumped in his chair and looked as if stricken with a heart attack.
The ambassador continued quickly and solicitously, “Please understand, our intelligence service believes that the primary target for the nuclear devices is China itself. It believes that eleven MANPADs were sent to the Philippines in two crates, including the one you have found. One tactical nuclear device was delivered to the Philippines. The agency does not yet know why or how this has happened.
“Our intelligence agency, in general, avoids political issues and the internal affairs of our friends and neighbors. It is concerned with our own national security. Nevertheless, I have been informed by those who should know, that the arms were purchased very recently in a way to suggest that the buyer was not a practiced revolutionary. He is perhaps more misguided than malevolent. That distinction, of course, is that of an outsider and you would be entirely within your rights to ignore it.
“If you wish, my office would be pleased to facilitate a frank exchange between your security or intelligence chief and ours. We need to foster trust between our two nations, I think.”
The Secretary thought hard for a long moment, impressed at the tone and details of the ambassador’s disclosure. Then he rose slowly and looked at the confident younger man facing him. He reflected on the candor that did not flatter the Chinese military or its government and, after a short pause, he decided to extend his hand to wish the Ambassador good-bye.
Contents
CHAPTER 17
Fourth Tuesday in Beijing
The water is far but the fire is near.
Chinese saying: Looking for distant and dangerous solutions to a clear and present danger.
At the CPS meeting the previous day, Wang had beckoned to Zhang, the Assistant Minister of Finance, and asked if he could spare an hour.
Not today, he had replied, but I don’t have to eat lunch tomorrow if you could manage to come to my office at noon.
See you tomorrow then, affirmed Wang.
From their first meeting two years ago, he had developed a high regard for the finance man. Zhang exhibited the traditional demeanor of an official, modest and tentative to begin examining a problem, but he was ingenious and resolute in execution of the remedy. The spymaster was also impressed to discover that Zhang was not a hide-bound traditionalist but supple in thought and well-informed. He was the only person at that meeting who needed no persuading that the danger presented by Pashtuns seeking arms would not only destabilize the balance of power around Afghanistan, but also appreciated the spymaster’s reasoning that irredentists in Central Asia would be emboldened and the virus would indubitably spread to the minorities in China.
At Wang’s modest wedding reception, Zhang had introduced his wife as the source of most of his ideas. “We met in the Economics department at the University but she outshone me,” he said.
“Politics bore me,” she said, “especially in academic institutions, so I am happy to be tucked away in the research institute.”
“I find the world less easy to compartmentalize,” Wang had said, whereupon she seemed to enter a trance from which she emerged to pronounce,
“You are right. I can see how economic decisions can have political or even military consequences, but I am not personally drawn to such considerations or debate.”
***
“Spymaster,” exclaimed Zhang. “This is a rare honor. What can I do for you?” The assistant minister occupied a room commensurate with his rank in a well-maintained but otherwise nondescript office block. A senior vice president in a middle-sized bank might have a larger, certainly more comfortably furnished, office.
“Comrade Zhang,” replied Wang. “I have been meaning to visit you in your native habitat. I hoped you could educate me on the interests of our country in the Eastern Ocean and the South Sea. There seems to be a lot of hard feelings and loud noises over these places.”
Zhang laughed. “Yes, drums beating and sabers rattling. Perhaps it sells newspapers, as they used to say in the old days.”
“You don’t seem to be concerned,” observed Wang.
“That’s because I count beans,” he retorted in self-deprecation. “Even within my ministry, it is not a glamorous activity to analyze numbers and forecasts, but it is a relaxing activity. You, however, asked a question in seriousness.”
“Indeed,” Wang confirmed. “If there is anything that might lead to hostilities of any sort, I should like to be aware of it and to prevent it if I can.”
“Policing the world to make it safe for socialism?” asked Zhang with a smile.
“Hardly,” Wang answered. “It appears to be more like keeping the cats from hissing at each other before they do anything worse.” The two men stopped their banter and looked at each other. Both were trim in a “modern” manner with the spymaster half a head taller. The finance ministry did not encourage outlandish behavior or plumage. Zhang’s western suit was modestly tailored to attract the least attention possible.
“It is difficult to see what gives energy to the noises,” stated Zhang. “I believe that the Eastern Ocean may contain, at most, two or three times China’s current proven reserves of oil and gas. This is a guess since there has been little scientific activity.”
Wang nodded. “We only want what is rightfully ours, I think. The Japanese took those miserable islands after they defeated the Qing dynasty in the late nineteenth century. Korea became a Japanese protected state and Taiwan was ceded to the Japanese empire as was part of Liaoning province.”
“You are more of a historian than I, Spymaster, but even I know that after the wars of the early twentieth century, Chinese interests were not, shall we say, well-defended. The Americans took over everything and then gave them to the Japanese when they decided it was time to leave. It is, I think, a minor miracle that they did not also give Korea to the Japanese.”
“We were preoccupied then and I really detest hypothetical history,” interjected Wang. “We have to deal with what we have, regardless of who did what to whom last year or last century or, heaven forbid, in the last millennium.” In the ensuing pause, Wang looked around the assistant finance minister’s tidy room. He recognized the discipline the tidiness entailed as files bulged and threatened to burst out of their neat folders on the shelves. The room looked as if it could not possibly hold any more cabinets. “I hope you get a bigger room soon,” said the spymaster drily, alluding to cocktail chatter regarding Zhang’s impending promotion.
The finance minister made a face and slowly laid out his views. “I think the most serious item is free passage through the South China Sea. But that seems to be self-evident. It is in everybody’s interest. China should not be so paranoid, in my humble opinion, as to think that anyone would or could challenge the right to free and ‘innocent’ passage on the open seas, there or anywhere. Heaven forbid that WE should want to control or police the nations that might use those seas. But I am not a general or an admiral and I do not see the world through their eyes.”
“Fifty years ago, the Americans might have tried with their Seventh Fleet,” murmured Wang. “There were silly people at that time who ranted about it, but there were a lot of silly people then, the Cultural Revolution and all that. I agree with you, from what I understand, about safe and free passage on the high seas. So why is China raising the temperature in this area?”
Zhang shrugged. “The oil and gas reserves that are known to be recoverable from what we have long called the South Sea are roughly equal to China’s own. That would mean we could double our holdings if we are prepared to fight all the other nations on this. It amounts roughly to about what Mexico has. We have sought to secure future supplies by signing long term contracts with major producers like the Russian Federation,” scoffed the deputy finance minister. “We have obtained more with the signing of a document than we could by taking on ASEAN.”
“There seems to be a ‘but’ coming up,” Wang said impatiently.
Zhang gave him a knowing grin and proceeded. “But even these contracts are not the answer to our nation’s long term needs. China has a lot of coal, so seventy percent of our current energy needs are met by coal-fired generators. At the rate we are using up the coal, we shall run out in a generation.
“As for oil and gas, they contribute twenty-two percent of our current energy usage, but the prospects of the world running out of these resources are about the same. This is especially so because the competition for such petroleum resources will only become more intense. Everyone talks about renewable energy. Can you guess how much of China’s energy comes from renewable sources?”
Wang shook his head. “I don’t think I shall like the answer.”
His host declared in a dramatic stage whisper, “As of 2011, one percent.” He nodded knowingly and continued, “That is in our twelfth five-year plan, and ‘people’ are talking about doubling the contribution in the thirteenth five-year plan. ‘They’ think this is something to crow about.” He shook his head and said firmly, “I happen to think that it is pathetic, laughable.”
“What would you do if you could?” asked Wang.
“I have unconventional views,” Zhang remarked. “You might not want to be associated with them.”
“Will your views make the shouting over the Eastern Ocean and the South Sea stop?”
“It will stop only the shouting that is essential to the need for energy.”
“I think I understand. School children cannot stop themselves from pushing each other even when there seems to be no reason to do so from an adult’s point of view.”
Zhang nodded and continued his exposition, “I believe that the goal for the thirteenth five-year plan should be to multiply the contribution ten times. From one to ten percent of China’s energy need or use.” He paused to take note of the spymaster’s reaction which was a shrug.
